The Hard Truth

The following observations about climate change are not what the public is currently being led to believe. Each observation can be fully supported using well-established science. Together, they represent a new, and disturbing, perspective on the Earth’s changing climate:  

1. Climate change is not caused by variations in extreme weather events. Extreme weather is just a symptom of climate change, not the cause. The Earth’s climate changes because of changes in the Carbon Ratio®. This is the ratio of the amount of carbon naturally removed from the atmosphere, and converted to petroleum, compared to the amount of fossil fuels combusted and put carbon back in the atmosphere by human activity.

    

2. In 1956 the Carbon Ratio® was approximately one and the Earth was sustainable. In 2022 the Carbon Ratio® was 6.7. The Earth is no longer sustainable and never will be again. There is no science available to contradict this claim.

    

3. The First (Common Sense) Law of Climate Change: If, any of the carbon removed from the atmosphere naturally, and converted to fossil fuels, thus allowing the Earth to cool, is put back in the atmosphere as the result of human activity, then the Earth’s temperature must – once again – increase to the same temperature it was before the carbon was removed.

    

4. As of 2019, there was at least twice as much carbon in the atmosphere as reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory located at 13,700 ft. This is because all the carbon in the atmosphere, beginning at ground level, will eventually help to increase the Earth’s temperature. Nevertheless, scientists remain focused only on the amount of carbon measured at 13,700 ft.

    

5. This means there is no benefit to be gained from the use of windmills, solar panels, EVs, etc. These are just supplemental forms of energy; it is a smokescreen encouraged by Madison to keep the wheels of industry moving forward. They provide no lasting value.

    

6. In the past 100 yrs.+/-, human activity has replaced 242% of the carbon nature removed in 50 million yrs. This means we are putting 1,083,000 times more carbon back in the atmosphere every year mechanically, than nature is removing naturally. There should no longer be any doubt about why, nor how much, the Earth’s climate will change in the coming decade(s).

    

7. There is already more than enough carbon in the atmosphere to one day increase the Earth’s ambient temperature to 81.5° F. This fact is disturbing because scientists suggest that, when the Earth reaches an ambient temperature of 64° F, our species – let alone our civilization – will have difficulty surviving (Note: The Earth’s ambient temperature in 2024 was 59.1° F). 

The leaders of our civilization – in government, industry and academia – cannot, or will not, tell the public the truth about climate change. Instead of telling the public the truth they encourage us believe:

1. Climate change will be manageable and,
2. Sustainability is achievable.

Both of these assertions are scientifically impossible and completely false.

Our leaders lack of knowledge in the area of climate science is further exacerbated by the fact that:

1. No government can tell the general public the truth about climate change because climate change is bad news, and bad news does not win votes.
2. Industry leaders can’t tell their customers bad news because telling customers bad news does not increase sales or improve the Bottom Line.
3. Scientists and academics have made climate change unnecessarily complicated by talking about the complexities of the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry. As a result it is difficult for scientists to step back and look at the big picture.

Scientists view climate change as a highly complex issue. While both the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry are extremely complicated, climate change is not. Climate change is easy to understand, and impossible to deny, if you consider it in terms of the Carbon Ratio®.

Climate change is easy to understand, and impossible to deny, if you look at it from the following perspective: 

1. The number of carbon atoms on, in, and around the Earth today, is exactly the same as it was when the Earth first formed; all that has changed is the location of the carbon. It is the location of the carbon atoms that determines the Earth’s temperature.
2. The principal reason the Earth is blue and green and livable is because it has, or had, just the right amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Carbon in the atmosphere is the only thing that traps thermal radiation; oxygen, nitrogen, and argon do not.
3. The only reason we have a civilization today is because we have agriculture, and the only reason we have agriculture is because the climate calmed down and the weather became sufficiently predictable so that agriculture could evolve.
4. The only reason the weather calmed down is because there was less thermal energy in the atmosphere to drive the weather to extremes, and the only reason there was less thermal energy is because there was less carbon.
5. The only reason there was less carbon in the atmosphere is because a portion of it was slowly removed by photosynthesis and converted to fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are carbon that is no longer in the atmosphere, and no longer in the carbon cycle.
6. The Common Sense Rule of Climate Change: If, any portion of the carbon removed from the atmosphere by photosynthesis, and stored in the Earth as fossil fuels, thus allowing the Earth to cool, is put back in the atmosphere by human activity, then the Earth’s temperature must – once again – increase to the same temperature it was before the carbon was removed. However, the Carbon Delay causes a time lag – measured in decades – between the moment the carbon is emitted into the atmosphere, and before the climate begins to heat up and change.
7. In order for our species to continue our tenure on Earth, a specific ratio must be maintained between the amount of carbon human activity puts back in the atmosphere, and the amount of carbon photosynthesis removes from the atmosphere and converts to fossil fuels. This is the Carbon Ratio®. A Carbon Ratio® of one (1:1) is required for our species life on Earth to continue. In 1956 the Carbon Ratio® on Earth was about one. Our civilization was sustainable. In 2022 the Carbon Ratio® was 6.7. Our civilization in no longer sustainability.

The one variable that is seldom – if ever – mentioned when discussing climate change is optimism, or the lack of it in this case. We live in a capitalistic society. No individual, no household and no corporation, will make a capital investment unless they feel optimistic about something.

There are many things happening in our world today and any one of them has the potential to cause the public’s optimism to decrease, e.g., the increasingly volatile geopolitical situation, the instability being introduced into the US Government, the widening income inequality, forced migration, polluted oceans, and the most egregious problem of all, the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events caused by the excess thermal energy trapped in the atmosphere. When all these events are considered, it is only a question of time before the public’s optimism will begin to decrease.

When the public’s sense of well-being begins to decrease, so will their capital expenditures. Decreased expenditures by consumers will begin to decrease the tax base. When that happens public services will begin to decrease, e.g. fire, police, medical, infrastructure and social services. The pervasive decrease in optimism will begin to cascade throughout the economy. A self-reinforcing negative feed-back loop will have begun.

When scientists talk about abrupt changes in the Earth’s ecosystem they refer to the impact of certain perturbations. Perturbations are major events that knock the ecosystem out of stasis and cause it to move in a different direction. Decreased optimism in the public’s mind could easily be the perturbation that breaks the back of our civilization. If this is the case, it could happen long before the climate change has wrought it’s worst.

Even without a decrease in the tax base and/or a decline in social services, the irrefutable science surrounding the Carbon Ratio® makes it clear that there is enough human-induced carbon already in the atmosphere to insure our species eventual extinction. For this reason it does not make sense for our civilization to continue on the same high growth, energy dense, trajectory we have been on for the past 300 years. Therefore, we must find the courage to face the reality of what lies ahead: the Carbon Ratio® is now far greater than what is needed for life on Earth to continue. That means our only option is to tell the public the truth about what lies ahead. We can then come together to devise a plan that will allow for an orderly contraction. If we do not have the courage to make the difficult decisions that needs to be made today, then our civilization will eventually slide into anarchy, violence, and perhaps war. Which choice we make will not be determined by our leaders but rather by the courage and determination of the public.